中央民族大学
Predicting the future is risky business for a scientist. It is safe to say, however, that the global AIDS epidemic will get much worse before it gets any better. Sadly, this modern plague will be with us for several generations, despite major scientific advances.As of January 2000, the AIDS epidemic has claimed 15 million lives and left 40 million people living with a viral infection that slowly but relentlessly erodes the immune system. Accounting for more than 3 million deaths in the past year alone, the AIDS virus has become the deadliest microbe in the world, more lethal than even TB and malaria. There are 34 developing countries where the prevalence of this infection is 2% or greater. In Africa nearly a dozen countries have a rate higher than 10%, including four southern African nations in which a quarter of the people are infected. And the situation continues to worsen; more than 6 million new infections appeared in 1999. This is like condemning 16,000 people each day to a slow and miserable death.Fortunately, the AIDS story has not been all gloom and doom. Less than two years after AIDS was recognized, the guilty agent — human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV — was identified. We now know more about HIV than about any other virus, and 14 AIDS drugs have been developed and licensed in the U.S. and Western Europe.The epidemic continues to rage, however, in South America, Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. By the year 2025, AIDS will be by far the major killer of young Africans, decreasing life expectancy to as low as 40 years in some countries and single-handedly erasing the public health gains of the past 50 years.It is Asia, with its huge population at risk, that will have the biggest impact on the global spread of AIDS. The magnitude of the pandemic could range from 100 million to 1 billion, depending largely on what happens in India and China. Four million people have already become HIV-positive in India, and infection is likely to reach several percent in a population of 1 billion. Half a million Chinese are now infected; the trajectory of China’s epidemic, however, is less certain.An explosive AIDS epidemic in the U.S. is unlikely. Instead, HIV infection will continue to fester in about 0.5% of the population. But the complexion of the epidemic will change. New HIV infections will occur predominately in the underclass, with rates 10 times as high in minority groups. Nevertheless, American patients will live quality lives for decades, thanks to advances in medical research. Dozens of powerful and well-tolerated AIDS drugs will be developed, as will novel means to restore the immune system.A cure for AIDS by the year 2025 is not inconceivable. But constrained by economic reality, these therapeutic advances will have only limited benefit outside the U.S. and Western Europe.1. Which is the best title for this text? 2. The phrase “gloom and doom” (L1, Para.3) probably means ( )3. Which of the following statistics is correct according to the text?4. We can learn from the text that ( )5. According to the author, the cure for AIDS will probably mainly depends on ( )
Conventional wisdom has it that concern for the environment is a luxury only the rich world can afford; that only people whose basic needs for food and shelter have been met can start worrying about the health of die planet. This survey will argue that developing countries, too, should be thinking about the environment. True, in the rich countries a strong environmental movement did not emerge until long after they had become industrialized, a stage that many developing countries have yet to reach. And true, many of the developed world’s environmental concerns have little to do with immediate threats to its inhabitants’ well-being. People worry about whether carbon-dioxide emissions might lead to a warmer climate next century, or whether genetically engineered craps might have unforeseen consequences for the ecosystem. That is why, when rich world environmentalists’ campaign against pollution in poor countries, they are often accused of naivety. Such countries, the critics say, have more pressing concerns, such as getting their people out of poverty.But the environmental problems that developing countries should worry about are different from those that western pundits have fashionable arguments over. They are not about potential problems in the next century, but about indisputable harm being caused today by, above all, contaminated water and polluted air. The survey will argue that, contrary to conventional wisdom, solving such problems need not hurt economic growth; indeed dealing with them now will generally be cheaper than leaving them to cause further harm. In most developing countries pollution seems to be getting worse, not better. Most big cities in Latin America, for example, are suffering rising levels of air pollution. Populations in these countries are growing so fast that improvements in water supply have failed to keep up with the number of extra people. Worldwide, about a billion people still have no access to clean water, and water contaminated by sewage is estimated to kill some 2 million children every year. Throughout Latin America, Asia, Africa, forests are disappearing, causing not just long-term concern about climate change but also immediate economic damage. Forest fires in Indonesia in 1997 produced a huge blanket of smog that enveloped much of South-East Asia and kept the tourists away. It could happen again, and probably will.Recent research suggests that pollution in developing countries is far more than a minor irritation: it imposes a heavy economic cost. A World Bank study put the cost of air and water pollution in China at $54 billion a year, equivalent to an astonishing 8% of the country’s GDP. Another study estimated the health costs of air pollution in Jakarta and Bangkok in the early 1990s at around 10% of these cities’ income. These are no more than educated guesses, but whichever way the sums are done, the cost is not negligible.1. It is conventionally thought that ( ).2. Critics of campaign against pollution in poor countries hold that poor countries should care more about ( )3. It can be inferred from the text that ( ).4. Disappearing forests throughout Latin America, Asia and Africa can cause ( ).5. The text is written for the purpose of ( )
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